It’s now time to conclude. And in particular, to think about how you could now act differently, given what we’ve discussed about the future and about anticipation. Remember our general objectives for this class. We argued that any good manager or entrepreneur is also a great analyst, able to understand his landscape, to think about how it is evolving and how it will be evolving in the future. It is therefore crucial for the analyst and you, to hone your analytical skills, so as to formulate more robust and more informed expectations about the future. In other words, the good manager entrepreneur is a curious individual looking to explore new horizons. We have also argued that competition in your landscape will often mean that nothing is static. Your ability to anticipate these movements and to consider how fit, you, your organisation and your approach are to face the future, will therefore be crucial. This will mean, in particular, that you will need to consider whether your capabilities, your state of mind, your overall strategy are right to help you in your reinvention effort, and to stand strong in the long term. Let’s pause and think about this topic of reinvention. What has this class taught you? How do you think you could undertake this reinvention effort once this class is done? Pause this video and think about this. The answer you came up with undoubtedly depends on your special case, this has been the case to other classes. But it might be worth recalling, here, the two basic steps we discussed to achieve this goal of better anticipating and reinventing for the future. The first step, which we discussed in module two, lies in understanding what the future could look like. We discussed in particular how tools like horizon scanning, historical analysis, feedback, microeconomic analysis and cultural factors can help you understand what outcomes the future could hold. Taken together, we said, these outcomes represent the map of the future that can be a starting point for a broader conversation within a team or a specific reflection on your end regarding how relevant your approach is. In most cases, it is important to recognise that you may need to shift paths in order to be better prepared for the future. Changing paths is exactly what this reinvention effort is all about, again, your ability to continuously rethink, redefine and redesign what you stand for in order to be as relevant as possible in tomorrow’s context. The second step of the approach, which we discussed in module three, lies in recognising the fact that nothing is predetermined nor fixed, far from it. The challenge lies in making sense out of the uncertainty that you face and the complexity that it entails. In particular, humans live in two worlds at once, the linear and the chaotic world. In the linear world, there is a low degree of unpredictability and forecasting tools are reliable to some degree. This requires from you a high degree of awareness of what is going on so as to better adjust your thinking and your allocation of resources. In the chaotic world, there is a high degree of unpredictability. Trying to forecast what will happen is therefore a fool’s errand. This requires from you a high degree of resilience, that is, an ability to bounce back in the aftermath of a deep, disruptive moment that others may have failed to (inaudible). And again, note that in both the linear world and the chaotic world, the ability to reinvent is key. Whether it’s about adjustment to newer developments and trajectories or about bouncing back and perhaps starting from scratch after a transformational crisis, your ability to redefine and redesign your activity is crucial to guarantee your long-term viability. So, up until now, we’ve considered: the state of the world and the possible trajectories that could follow, the key variables and open questions that could be worth monitoring, and the unexpected, and the potential for significant disruptive moments. This approach has not left much consideration to the individual per se, nor to his ability or her ability to weigh in. We have argued that, in the chaotic world, the interactions that occur between actors are more akin to what happens in a poker game than when you roll the dice. Personal strategies, bluff and personalities can also shape outcomes. How can we make sense of these then ? Well, the last step of this approach, which is the theme of this final module and conclusion, requires stepping out of the analyst’s shoes and into the actors, and even the power player’s shoes. Your landscape is likely to be filled with potential power players and rule breakers looking to leverage their assets. So beware, and make sure you not only understand how your landscape is changing, but also what you can do about it. Let’s check whether you’re still with me. Can you identify the statement that matches the most the overall objective of this class? Is it, A: anticipation and reinvention require you to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, B: anticipation and reinvention require you to predict the future, C: anticipation and reinvention are in the hands of the most rational people, or D: anticipation and reinvention require you to understand the forces driving the future and what you can do about it ? I think that if you’re still with me, you'll agree that the correct answer is D. In fact, here’s the bottom line. We’ve been arguing in favour of a proactive and open-minded approach to issues, one thanks to which we are able to understand what the future is made up of. And it is now time to identify our and others’ potential to make power plays. Ultimately, we’ll need to think about you and your behaviour, day to day and in the long run.
