[MUSIC] Hi, welcome back to our last session on the class for the integrated quantitative analysis of food metabolism. In this we will present just an example of this type of analysis and example applied to the Republic of Ecuador. And then this basically will be an illustration of the grammars that we presented earlier. If you remember, what we said, that there is this general semantic way of framing the metabolic pattern of food in a society. You have on the left the external view from where the food is coming, either imported or domestic supply. Then you have a certain amount of food, the gross amount that is used by the society, the society is using it either for the final consumption or for running the agricultural sector. And there's of course a part that is exported. Let's start with the Internal View, so what we have here, these are data from Juan Cadillo Benalcazar. And the working here with us. So we start with the gross food supply. So this is a total quantity, cereals, roots and legumes, crops,seeds, vegetable and fruits and so on, this is the quantity. This is the amount of hectares in production and the losses. So that this graph would supply goes into the system and there is an internal override of the agriculture sector. This is the amount of the stock of animal that is required to be alive in order to produced meat and eggs and milk. This is the amount of food that this animals are eating and also internal consumption of agriculture for seeds for producing crops. And then finally we have on the top the amount of net food supply to the society. Again, this can be a stressed in total mass, in energy, in product, in carbs or grain, whatever. And this is the consumption per capital okay, so the Net Food Supply that this amount of food that is actually provided. This up here are the level of the household can be then checked against the food requirements of the population. And then, as you remember, the situation is not that simple. Not necessarily all this food is eaten in the same way by all the population, is the famous joke of, the statistic says there is one chicken eaten per capital, but maybe we have people eating two chicken and people not eating anything. So that's moving from this type of information to the actual information about the nutritional status of the population at would require additional analysis that is not done in our grammar. You should have for geographic areas, social group, ethnic groups. Whether or not the food intake, how the food intake match the food requirement, how this is related to the amount of food that is disappearing at the household land that is the next supply to the society. Getting back to our grammar, now we can go the external view. So the external view is represented here. You have the import. Again, you have the amount of tons of imports and the area that is required. So it would be the gross land, the virtual land that is required to get this food. Then you have the domestic supply, this will be the amount of food which is produced internally in Ecuador. Again, this is tons adding production and losses. Then in the official statistics, you find a elements. This stock variation, this at times you are consuming a little bit more than has been produced or imported simply because you're changing the level of stocks. And this is in general is not particular important, especially in Ecuador because basically this is about cash crops. Then you get a second amount of this food that is exported. But in the case of Ecuador, it is not much. It is not essential, referring to the food that are eaten by the local population and then this is the gross food supply. That is what we saw before and during the internal view. Okay, so why it is important to have this information about local production? Because then we can go for each type of item here, like cereals, that is the quantity of cereals every year can be split into different type of cereal. And at this level of this aggregation you can start adding additional information about, for instance. How much fertilizer, pesticide, and labor, and energy is required to produce these cereals. And then in turn you can go see item by item, in this case like cereals. Can be split in rice, yellow corn, white corn and there are two different type of white corn wheat and then you can look at how much production of each of them and fertilizer, pesticide there and so on. Why it is important to split again in lower level categories because at these level of categories you could define what we call environmental impact matrix that is what is the impact on the environment or the use of the production of the different crops? In this case this would be fertilizer use for producing rice and fertilize use for producing corn. You go there and the impact on the aquifer you can draw reference the impact in GIS, organize your data in GIS. Another important aspect of this type of analysis that you can calculate their effect of the externalization this is just sort of funny story this about beer. So Ecuador is producing beer but imports a lot of Barley for doing only a small part came from internal production. Then you can either import Barley to make beer or import directly beer. In this case you have two different amount of hectares that you're importing in your import. Embodied in import you're using for making beer. And then you can have and understanding of how much the consumption of beer is affecting your user lands and your requirements of externalizing user land to all the countries, the one from which you're importing your beer. So you can say that for the beer that's consumed in Ecuador, there are 172,000 hectares of land required. Another important point that can be studied using this type of approach is that the importance of the meat for the double conversion needed diet. At the moment Ecuador as with 15 million people and the consumption of meat which is moderates compared with the rest of Latin America. And these mix of meats has the requirement of 8 millions tons of feed, 7 giga cubic meter of water, 5 million hectares of pasture, and 0.5 million hectare of cropland. What happen? If you're looking at the projection of population in year 2035, if the diet remained the same. The requirement of production factor will increase moderately kind of, from eight to ten, seven to nine, something like. Let's image now they will change the diet and they will move to a diet not as rich as Americans or Europeans, but a diet that is the average of Latin America that is pretty high compared to the average of the world because you know Argentina, Brazil they are heavy eater. And let's imagine that the same population 21 million will eat 79 kilos per capital rather than 44. It will increase a little bit the consumption of beef compare with the consumption of chicken because, beef, pork, and chicken require different times of feed per kilo. These are very controversial but we can say chicken will be two kilos of grain per kilo of chicken, four kilos of pork and seven, eight kilos of grain per kilo of beef. Of course, these are indicative but because it depends on what else the animals are eating. But it is important to note that depending on what type of meat you're eating, it's change the amount of feed you're requiring. But then if you look at that, just the same amount of population changing. The diet will imply enormous amounts increase in the requirement of resources, more than doubling the resources required. Finally, it is important to have an idea of what type of animals you're using to the world. Because in the case of Ecuador, you can see that the production of beef in the lower Ecuador is in three big zones, the coastal, on the sea. Then the Sierra is in the mountains, in the middle, and then the tropical forests on the right. And then at the moment to all the majority of the animals for beef are on the sea and then the majority of animals used for meat production are on the mountain. And they're starting to produce animals in the forest. But I mean, if we're looking at this enormous increase in our production we can see two things, that Ecuador will not be able to produce animal production. Maybe, will have to import feeds for feeding the animals. And for sure, it will be expanding the production of animal in the forest that is not necessarily a positive outcome of this scenario. So in conclusion we can say that when we do an integrated analysis of the metabolic pattern of food, we have to organize the number in a quantitative way. So a grammars could be very, very useful in structuring our analysis. So we have to generate different inputs that are needed for different decision, different performance. How much are you doing in terms of job, in terms of internal food stability, impact on the environment? All this information require different type of analysis. But what is important is that this analysis remain coherent. That if, you change something in one level, in one dimension, this is reflected in how this is effecting the rest of the system. So you have to go across case. You have to go across hierarchical levels of analysis, across dimension, environmental dimension, nutritional dimension, economical dimension. And overall, you have to be able to link all this quantitative analysis to land use. So the data have to be useful also in geographic information system.
